Since the first personal computer (PC) hit the market, newer and better models have made older models obsolete within months. Emerging new technologies are replacing the older ones in a pace that is difficult for users to follow.
Silicon microprocessors have been the heart of the computing world since the 1950s. During that time, microprocessor manufacturers have crammed more transistors and enhancements onto microprocessors. In 1965, Intel founder Gordon Moore predicted that microprocessors would double in complexity every two years. Since then, that complexity has doubled every 18 months, and industry experts dubbed the prediction Moore's Law. Many experts have predicted that Moore's Law will reach an end soon because of the physical limitations of silicon microprocessors.
At any given time, processor and transistor capacities continue to rise. This is because chip manufacturers are constantly finding new ways to etch transistors onto the silicon. The transistors are now getting smaller and smaller, measured in nanometers; a billionth of a meter. And the smaller that number goes, the more transistors will fit onto a chip and, thus, the more processing power the chip is capable of.
People are now predicting what will happen when we reach the end of Moore's Law. A new means of processing data could ensure that progress continues. Potential successors are those that prove to be a more powerful means of performing the basic computational functions of a processor. Silicon microprocessors have relied on the traditional two-state transistor for more than 50 years, but inventions such as quantum computers have the capability to change how the industry sees its future.
Time will tell whether the power of quantum computers will ever make it to the average PC. In the meantime, the PC market is slowly moving toward mobile devices where processing power increase in an exponential rate, closing the gap between a dream and the reality.
Portable PC
Before the first PC was born, computers manufacturers were conceptualizing portable computers. It was the 12-pound IBM PC Convertible that brought the laptop concept into production in 1986. Since then, laptop computers have become smaller and lighter, and their processing power has improved alongside desktop PCs.
Today, the computer industry recognizes other classes of mobile computers. One class, the notebook, has become almost synonymous with the laptop. The term was originally used to indicate a smaller, lighter cousin to the laptop. Another class, the netbook, is even smaller than notebooks, while also being cheaper and less powerful. The classification is probably named for its target audience: those that want a very basic interface for using the internet.
Mobile computing goes even further, creating a new market for smartphones and tablets that currently have as much processing power as notebooks, packed into smaller packages. The key differences include a smaller screen size and resolution, fewer external ports, cellular phone capability and touch-screen technology, in addition to or in place of a keyboard.
When traditional computers used to struggle to be in almost everyone's home, portable PC's are getting inside everyone's hand with its lower cost advantage and sufficient computing power for most people to use.
On the software side, PC operating systems and software are also improving portability. Developers are decreasing the size of the software and its requirements to enable them work for a wider range of hardware specification. And at the same time, cloud storage and computing further decrease system requirements, making devices with limited capability has the potential to be useful as a bigger and more powerful device. Naturally, large applications that aren't web-enabled are the exception to this space-saving advantage.
The Merging Markets
Today, the most popular and mostly used operating systems for desktop computers are: Microsoft's Windows products, Apple's OSx and Linux kernel-based systems. These three widely-used and well-known products are dominating the market since they were first introduced to the public. With the emerging and increasing popular mobile market, these operating systems are widening their hands to embrace the current trend in handheld tech: Microsoft with Windows Phone, Apple with iOS and Linux with Google's Android.
With portable PCs are closing the gap with traditional desktop computers, the decline of the desktop isn't surprising. People are expecting to see the change for a long time when tablets and other portable devices are eating PC's market. Tablets are predicted to become the primary computing device because while they aren't the most powerful computing gadgets, they are the most convenient.
Will the conventional and the traditional "big" PC become obsolete? It will likely not. Even though improvements in technology can make older model obsolete, and although many computer hardware manufacturer are moving themselves toward the mobile trend, ditching further developments for traditional PCs, PCs will always have its market. And with the rise of portable PC, traditional PC's market will just slow down. This has been proven since tablets and other portable devices only partially cannibalize PCs. Tablets and other portable devices do slow desktop computer and laptop sales, but people still need conventional PCs for intensely creative work and games that requires large display and significant processing power.
Despite how good portable PCs are penetrating the market, there is one thing for certain: PCs will continue to evolve with more capacity, increasing its speed and processing power. And it will continue to be an integral part of our lives.